Check your Form 8962 (Premium Tax Credit) that comes with your tax return. Line 29 shows your “net premium tax credit.” If the amount on Line 24 (advanced credit) is lower than Line 25 (actual credit), congratulations! You’re getting a refund. The $500 number is an approximate cap for very specific income levels—around 200-300% FPL.
For example: a single person making $35,000 might get about $200 back. A family of four making $70,000 could see $500. But don’t quote me—the IRS loves to randomize things for sport.
Your best bet? Use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator online. Or just listen to your accountant, who will probably roll their eyes and say, “It depends.” (Because it always does.)